Will Greece, Ireland or Spain be the first casualty of a eurozone collapse?

[mediastar]

http://theinternetforum.co.uk/euro-collapse/greece-1.html

[Sticky Threads]

Who will be next.

[Dreamweaver]

^ I hope all EU countries that use the Euro ditch it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[mediastar]

Mail

Peter Oborne on the euro and the struggling Pigs.

[mediastar]

http://theinternetforum.co.uk/euro-collapse/ireland-1.html
Will Ireland exit the euro first?

http://theinternetforum.co.uk/euro-collapse/greek-euros-1.html
German savers reject southern Europe euro banknotes

The euro is now starting to stagger. Ireland has joined the ranks of the Pigs and Germans are starting to refuse euros issued by the Pigs and asking for euros issued by stable economies.

The Pigs and the Irish will soon ask the Germans and the stronger countries to bail them out and will be told "Nein!". There will probably be riots in the streets before the politicians wake up but expect the euro to start its collapse before long.

[geogchick]

^ I hope all EU countries that use the Euro ditch it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

err why?

I love the Euro....  Ireland won't be ditching it nor will it be ditched. That is as likely a possibility as The Scottish/Welsh/N Irish ditching sterling

[mediastar]

Will Spain exit the euro first?

http://theinternetforum.co.uk/euro-collapse/spain-1.html

Spain is another candidate to be the first to exit the euro, the ill-fated experiment by out-of-touch European politicians. In ten years the folly of the euro will have become conventional wisdom in the economic history books. But for now citizens across Europe suffer as the politicians figure it all out.

[geogchick]

Who's suffering? I'm not suffering and 97% of Irish people agree with me. Tell me, why do you hate the Euro so much?

[mediastar]

The site has covered the euro for years. The euro is not hated - I am just explaining the pressures which will cause its demise - and explaining the pain that will be caused as governments try to hang onto it before that.

http://theinternetforum.co.uk/taxonomy/term/65

Ex-Dell employees are suffering in Ireland. Later this year 400,000 unemployed Irish people will suffer.

[geogchick]

Yes, but not because of the Euro. People are suffering in the UK (eg Woolworths employees) and no Euro there.

[Avoca_Charm]

i thought Dell was recession related and the fact that Ireland is hugely expensive compared to country like Poland , (that is where Dell is moving right? ) rather than the Euro's fault. Not that I follow or know much about economics etc so I could be wrong. I like the Euro, i miss using it now.
what would we use if it got ditched, go back to Punts? i can't barely remember them now. I did however find a 100 punt note in my room over the summer, i wonder if i can change it still? off topic i know.

[Minnie]

The biggest problem with the Euro is the idea that it is a one-size-fits-all currency - when it patently doesn't. The economies of Ireland, Greece, and Germany for instance are all vastly different from each other yet all are expected to comply with the same rules, the same interest rates etc. There is no room for manoeuvre if things start to go wrong whereas a country outside the Eurozone has options open to them, for instance devaluation, in times of crisis. The Euro is geared up to work for Germany mainly, also France, it is not geared to the very different economies of most other Eurozone countries who have absolutely no flexibility to react in their country's best interest.

[geogchick]

I did however find a 100 punt note in my room over the summer, i wonder if i can change it still? off topic i know.

Yes you can!!! I'm not sure if you can still bring it into any bank but you can certainly bring it into the central bank and they'll change it for you. Lucky you!


Minnie, The Euro seems to be working just fine to me. I can only talk about Ireland's economy as that's all I know about....but ANY problems here are not Euro related, I can assure you. Nobody has a problem with using the dollar in every state in the USA....so why a problem with the Euro.

I think the Euro is great....its gives great transparency when travelling. Sure different countries have different economies...that just means you get more for your Euro in some countries....as you get more for your sterling in much of the UK compared to London.

[Minnie]

that just means you get more for your Euro in some countries....

That might be true - but have you ever stopped to consider why that might be the case? Sorry but one size most definitely does not fit all and it does an incredible amount of damage to the economies of most countries trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. I'm very pleased for you that you love the Euro so much, though I do wonder if you will still love it in a few years time - if it still exists. It may well not exist by then, though its effects will still be felt for many years after its demise.

[Arctophile]

. Nobody has a problem with using the dollar in every state in the USA....so why a problem with the Euro.

Hardly comparable - all of the states are part of one country and not separate countries being shoehorned into one currency.

[geogchick]

Actually I think its quite comparable. Each state has a different economy and its own tax laws etc.

and why the use of words like 'shoehorned'? I find all this negative phrasing amazing. Britain is not part of the Euro, so I don;t see why people there are so negative towards it. If the Euro is a bad thing, just step back and think just as well we didn't join. It seems at the moment people are willing it not to work,

[Minnie]

just step back and think just as well we didn't join.

That's exactly what I do think

It seems at the moment people are willing it not to work,

Not at all, it isn't a case of willing it to work or willing it not to work, it's a case of looking at the evidence of my own eyes, ears and brain. Have a look at some of the very in-depth articles and analyses posted by mediastar above and draw your own conclusions.

Personally I really couldn't care less whether it succeeds or fails except in so far as its success or failure impinges on other currencies and other peoples lives and livelihoods.

[geogchick]

Have a look at some of the very in-depth articles and analyses posted by mediastar above and draw your own conclusions.

To be fair I did look....and drew my own conclusions.

The article on Ireland is hardly in depth. The first half talks about the economy in Ireland and discusses the recession but in no way links this to the Euro.

The second half focuses on one source: a former official at the Irish central bank. Note the word former. He is hardly a concrete source and in the Irish press is well known for self publicity.

Expect the Irish government to demand a bail-out from the EU - and more importantly expect the Germans to make it clear they will not bail out Ireland or the other Pigs (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) which also have rapidly collapsing economies. - Mediastar

Comments such as the above are merely personal opinion and in no way fact, (does Mediastar have a background in Economics).

I do not wish to attack Mediastar or the article particularly, the article is fine and MStar is entitled to blog...no problem with that. But please do not pass these articles off as fact.

[Minnie]

But please do not pass these articles off as fact.

I don't think anyone is passing anything off as fact - though I do somewhat query the 'fact' that

97% of Irish people agree with me

- that statement is rather at odds with what I have heard.

People read, watch and listen and then make up their own minds. I think you'll find that several eminent economists, both pro- and anti-Euro, have serious doubts about the future of the currency, and they do possibly have a lot more knowledge and experience than the average Eurozone citizen. But we'll just have to wait and see how it all pans out

[mediastar]

Credit default swaps probably give the best market estimates of default risk on borrowings.

Link

Ireland 257.2bppa
Austria 146.5bppa
Spain 129bpa
Germany 54.2bppa
 

Tesco 122bppa
Nestlé 72bppa

100bppa equals 1% per annum.

[jedidjahjulia]

I've just discovered this thread and have to agree with the Irish here a bit.
All those articles about European countries maybe ditching the euro and how the euro is to blame for a lot of things are not featured in my country, the Netherlands, either, Sure we've been sceptical of the Euro as well and still are, but noone here blames the Euro for the recession and even though newspapers write about countries in trouble, there is no mention at all of possibly dithching the Euro by any country.
I myself are very Eurosceptical so I am not expressing my own opinion per se, just wanted to back geogchick up as I recognize her story.

[mediastar]

http://forum.theinternetforum.net/index.php/topic,28932.msg785942.html#msg785942

This thread asked in February what was the betting that Iceland was going to be making the news in the following three months?

The reasons for the eventual crisis in Iceland were listed and asked "But this time who will bail them out?"

The Icelandic economy didn't crash until October. There had been little press coverage of the issue until then - but then the press don't usually analyse what might happen when it's much easier to describe what has just happened. 300,000 Brits had deposited money in Icelandic banks at the time of the bank defaults.

The financial press is certainly covering the Euro story now. Portugal has just had its debt downgraded - the third Pigs country this month to suffer a downgrade.

[jedidjahjulia]

You're definately right about Iceland; turned out our National Bank knew things were going wrong there and they never said anything until it was too late... We'll see how things are going in the next couple of months...

[mediastar]

You never know how much the authorities know but their job is not to speak but to act - and iof they don't act they don't speak.

http://theinternetforum.co.uk/euro-collapse/trichet-1.html

Trichet has spoken on the collapse of the euro but in a response to a parliamentary question. His response could only take one form what ever he thought - at least until there is an announcement about a split to be made. Governments are also not in a position to make statements other than to issue denials to questions at the moment.

[jammydodger]

Another Irish person here and having had many many many conversations with friends and family from all walks of life about the recession and no a single person has ever blamed the euro for it. The US and Britain and even Dubai all have very shakey economies at the moment without the Euro so I agree with geogchick Ireland is not blaming the Euro and neither has there been any question of us dumping it. I love the Euro....especially recently where it was valued practically with Sterling and I got great value on hotels and flights